Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions

Ploy Achakulwisut, Peter Erickson, Céline Guivarch, Roberto Schaeffer, Elina Brutschin and Steve Pye

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Abstract: Abstract The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot, global coal, oil, and natural gas supply (intended for all uses) decline on average by 95%, 62%, and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050, but the long-term role of gas is highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO 2 storage capacity and technology adoption, diffusion, and path-dependencies. If CDR is constrained by limits derived from expert consensus, the respective modelled coal, oil, and gas reductions become 99%, 70%, and 84%. Our findings suggest the need to adopt unambiguous near- and long-term reduction benchmarks in coal, oil, and gas production and use alongside other climate mitigation targets.

Date: 2023-09-13
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Published in Nature Communications, 2023, 14 (1), pp.5425. ⟨10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04420572

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41105-z

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