Who Can Predict Farmers' Choices in Risky Gambles?

Henning Schaak (), Jens Rommel, Julian Sagebiel (), Jesus Barreiro-Hurlé (), Douadia Bougherara, Luigi Cembalo (), Marija Cerjak (), Tajana Čop, Mikolaj Czajkowski, María Espinosa-Goded, Julia Höhler, Carl-Johan Lagerkvist, Macario Rodríguez-Entrena, Annika Tensi (), Sophie Thoyer (), Marina Maksan, Riccardo Vecchio () and Katarzyna Zagórska ()
Additional contact information
Henning Schaak: BOKU - Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences [Vienne, Autriche]
Julian Sagebiel: iDiv - German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research
Jesus Barreiro-Hurlé: JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Seville]
Luigi Cembalo: University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
Marija Cerjak: UNIZG - Faculty of Agriculture [Zagreb] - University of Zagreb
Tajana Čop: University of Zagreb
María Espinosa-Goded: Universidad de Sevilla = University of Seville
Annika Tensi: WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Sophie Thoyer: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier
Marina Maksan: University of Zagreb
Riccardo Vecchio: University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
Katarzyna Zagórska: UW - Uniwersytet Warszawski [Polska] = University of Warsaw [Poland] = Université de Varsovie [Pologne]

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Abstract: Risk is a pervasive factor in agriculture and a subject of great interest to agricultural economists. However, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding of the knowledge held by farm advisors, students, and economists with regards to farmers' risk preferences. Misconceptions about farmers' willingness to take risks could lead to misguided advice. This study builds upon a recent multinational endeavor that employed a multiple price list to assess risk preferences among European farmers. We expand this research by gathering predictions for farmers' risk preferences from 561 farm advisors, students, and economists. Our objectives are threefold: firstly, we explore variations as to how accurately participants can predict risk preferences in different specializations; secondly, we compare the predictive accuracy of different groups of forecasters; and thirdly, we assess whether modifying incentive mechanisms can improve the accuracy of predictions. Whereas our findings reveal substantial variation in individual predictions, the averages closely align with the observed responses of farmers. Notably, the most accurate predictions were provided by a sample of experimental economics researchers. Furthermore, predictions for different production systems exhibit minimal disparities. Introducing incentive schemes, such as a tournament structure, where the best prediction receives a reward, or a high-accuracy system, where randomly selected participants are compensated for the accuracy of their predictions, does not significantly impact accuracy. Further research and exploration are needed to identify the most reliable sources of advice for farmers.

Keywords: Risk attitudes; Expert predictions; Expert forecasts; Multiple prices lists; Meta-science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-eur and nep-exp
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04677299v1
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Q Open, 2024, 4 (12), pp.qoae021. ⟨10.1093/qopen/qoae021/7731124⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04677299

DOI: 10.1093/qopen/qoae021/7731124

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