Uncertainty Matters for Trade: Uncovering the Heterogeneous Effects

Ibrahim Nana, Rasmané Ouedraogo and Sapwende Tapsoba
Additional contact information
Ibrahim Nana: World Bank Group
Rasmané Ouedraogo: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Sapwende Tapsoba: FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International

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Abstract: The ongoing global trend is marked by increasing geopolitical fragmentation, leading to policy differences, longer supply chains, and heightened uncertainty. Recent events such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade disputes between the United States and China demonstrate this global uncertainty. The World Uncertainty Index has steadily increased since the 1990s and peaked in 2020 due to factors like US-China trade tensions, Brexit, and the coronavirus pandemic.

Keywords: Trade; International trade; Geopolitics; supply chains (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-11-28
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-cna and nep-int
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Published in 2024

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