Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy

Cédric Chambru

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Abstract: Did weather shocks increase interpersonal conflict in early modern Europe? I address this question by exploiting year-to-year seasonal variations in temperature and detailed crime data assembled from Savoyard criminal procedures over the period 1749–92. I find that temperature shocks had a positive and significant effect on the level of property crimes, but a negative and significant effect on violent crimes. I further document how seasonal migration helped to increase the coping capacity of local communities. Indeed, migrant labour both brought in remittances that supplemented communities' resources, as well as temporarily relieved impoverished households of the burden of feeding these workers. I show that while temperature shocks were strongly associated with an increase in property crime rates, the effect was much lower in provinces with high levels of seasonal migration. I provide historical evidence demonstrating that the inflow of remittances may have driven this relationship.

Keywords: Weather shocks; Migration; Crime; Grain prices; Savoy; 18th century; JEL classification: J61 N33 N53 Q10 Weather shocks Migration Crime Grain prices Savoy 18th century (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05029782v1
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Published in Explorations in Economic History, 2020, 78, pp.101353. ⟨10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101353⟩

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Journal Article: Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05029782

DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101353

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