Evaluating the effect of viral posts on social media engagement

Emanuele Sangiorgio (), Niccolò Di Marco, Gabriele Etta, Matteo Cinelli, Roy Cerqueti and Walter Quattrociocchi
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Emanuele Sangiorgio: UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
Niccolò Di Marco: UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
Gabriele Etta: UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
Matteo Cinelli: Italian National Research Council - CNR - National Research Council [Italy]
Roy Cerqueti: GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]
Walter Quattrociocchi: UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]

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Abstract: As virality has become increasingly central in shaping information sources' strategies, it raises concerns about its consequences for society, particularly when referring to the impact of viral news on the public discourse. Nonetheless, there has been little consideration of whether these viral events genuinely boost the attention received by the source. To address this gap, we analyze content timelines from over 1000 European news outlets from 2018 to 2023 on Facebook and YouTube, employing a Bayesian structural time series model to evaluate the impact of viral posts. Our results show that most viral events do not significantly increase engagement and rarely lead to sustained growth. We identify two primary types of viral effects corresponding to different mechanisms of collective attention response. A 'loaded-type' virality manifests after a sustained growth phase, representing its final burst, followed by a decline in attention. A 'sudden-type' virality, with news emerging unexpectedly, reactivates the collective response process. Moreover, quick viral effects fade faster, while slower processes lead to more persistent growth. These findings highlight the transient nature of viral events and underscore the importance of consistent, steady attention-building strategies to establish a solid connection with the user base rather than relying on sudden visibility spikes.

Keywords: Social and Information Networks (cs.SI); FOS: Computer and information sciences; Social media; Virality; Attention economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-01-03
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://univ-angers.hal.science/hal-05109549v1
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Published in Scientific Reports, 2025, 15 (1), pp.639. ⟨10.1038/s41598-024-84960-6⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05109549

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-84960-6

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