Impacts of climate change on regional cattle trade in the central corridor of Africa

Ariane Amin, Abdrahmane Wane (), Inza Koné, Michel Krah and Adjoua Ange-Jokébed N'Goran ()
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Ariane Amin: UFHB - Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny [Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire]
Abdrahmane Wane: UMR SELMET - Systèmes d'élevage méditerranéens et tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement
Inza Koné: UFHB - Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny [Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire]
Michel Krah: UFHB - Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny [Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire]
Adjoua Ange-Jokébed N'Goran: UMR SELMET - Systèmes d'élevage méditerranéens et tropicaux - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement

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Abstract: The impacts of climate change on agricultural systems in West Africa have been analyzed extensively. However, few studies have focused on livestock systems. Using export data for the period 1996–2017 and climate data for two major cattle suppliers (Mali and Burkina Faso) and one net importer (Côte d'Ivoire) in West Africa, we estimated a gravity model of temperature and cattle trade. Our study provides findings on the impacts of climate change on cattle supply. Indeed, we found that climate shocks in some major Sahel cattle-exporting countries, i.e., Mali and Burkina Faso, can affect the supply of a coastal import country, such as Côte d'Ivoire. Specifically, the study supports findings that a temperature increase in the Sudanian region of the Sahel induces a significant decrease in cattle trade flows. We found, as an example, that a 0.3 °C global increase in temperature could decrease cattle trade flow by 25%, which could happen to exports in 10 years from 2020 in the moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), and in 06 years in the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) at horizon 2050. There is a 67% and 80% chance, respectively, that this will happen, based on the climate change scenario. Our results are of great interest to cattle systems because they partly demonstrate the result of inaction in the face of climate change in that economic sector. In fact, if nothing is set up, significant disruption to cattle trade flow from Sahelian countries, which is projected to occur in the near future, could weaken regional economic integration in addition to raising the risk of food insecurity.

Keywords: Mali; Burkina Faso; Côte d'Ivoire; changement climatique; système d'élevage; évaluation de l'impact; impact économique; production de bétail; économie agricole; commerce agricole; Climate impacts; Economic impacts; Livestock economy; Gravity model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Published in Regional Environmental Change, 2023, 23 (1), pp.35. ⟨10.1007/s10113-022-02017-8⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05181160

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-022-02017-8

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