Financial Outlook for the Pension System and the Standard of Living of Pensioners by 2070

Les perspectives financières du système de retraite et du niveau de vie des retraités à l'horizon 2070

Frédérique Nortier-Ribordy ()
Additional contact information
Frédérique Nortier-Ribordy: SG-COR - Secrétariat général du Conseil d'orientation des retraites

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: The outlook for changes in the share of pension expenditure in GDP depends heavily on assumptions of future productivity. If labour productivity were to increase by an average of 1.6% per year, the ratio of pension expenditure to GDP would be stable or decreasing from 2032, to settle at 12.1% in 2070, compared to 14.7% if productivity were to increase by only 0.7%. This stability or even decrease in the share of pension expenditure may seem counter- intuitive in view of the expected ageing of the population. The increase in the retirement age from 62 to 64, as a result of reforms adopted, and the smaller increase in pensions compared to earned income would, in effect, counterbalance this ageing. The standard of living of pensioners would thus be between 75.5% and 87.2% of the standard of living of the whole population in 2070, whereas it has been broadly equivalent since the early 2000s.

Keywords: retirement; standard of living; demographics and public spending; dépenses publiques; démographie; niveau de vie; retraite (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05203718v1
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Published in Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 2023, 538, pp.89 - 105. ⟨10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2094⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://insee.hal.science/hal-05203718v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05203718

DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2023.538.2094

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().