Household Inflation Expectations in France: Lessons from a New Survey and the COVID-19 Crisis

Les anticipations d’inflation des ménages en France: leçons d’une nouvelle enquête et de la crise du Covid‑19

Erwan Gautier and Jérémi Montornès ()
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Jérémi Montornès: Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France

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Abstract: This article documents several stylised facts about household inflation expectations in France based on data from a new survey by the European Central Bank, the Consumer Expectation Survey, conducted online among thousands of households between 2020 and 2021. The results are compared with those from the INSEE CAMME survey (a monthly consumer confidence survey), which has been carried out for many years. The conclusions drawn from the results obtained through these two surveys converge: the level of inflation anticipated by households is higher than actual or forecasted inflation. During the period 2020-2021, inflation expectations were positively correlated not only with current inflation, but also with the expected level of unemployment. During the COVID-19 crisis, only the first lockdown had a positive effect on expectations. However, the methodology of the two surveys differs, leading to discrepancies in the extent of the bias on current inflation, the dispersion of expected inflation or the intensity of correlations with actual inflation or with unemployment.

Keywords: households; survey; expected inflation; enquête; ménages; Inflation anticipée (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05204340v1
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Published in Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 2022, 534-35, pp.3 - 19. ⟨10.24187/ecostat.2022.534.2076⟩

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Journal Article: Household Inflation Expectations in France: Lessons from a New Survey and the COVID-19 Crisis (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05204340

DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2022.534.2076

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