SILENT COLLAPSE AND STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY IN MALI (1990–2024): An Econometric and Discursive Analysis of the Links between Unemployment, De-statization, and Enduring Povertyv

EFFONDREMENT SILENCIEUX ET VULNERABILITE STRUCTURELLE AU MALI (1990–2024): Analyse économétrique et discursive des liens entre chômage, désétatisation et pauvreté durable

Etienne Fakaba Sissoko (), Mohamed L. Traore and Tahirou Tangara
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Etienne Fakaba Sissoko: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, Faculté des Sciences économiques et de Gestion - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako
Mohamed L. Traore: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako
Tahirou Tangara: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako

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Abstract: Abstract This article analyzes, over the period 1990–2024, the links between structural unemployment, the progressive withdrawal of the state, and the persistent reproduction of poverty in Mali. Using annual data from international databases (WDI, ILOSTAT, UNESCO, BTI, WGI), the study employs an ARDL model, a VAR, and structural break tests, complemented by a qualitative thematic analysis of post-2020 institutional discourse. The results show that poverty remains highly inertial, only weakly responsive to traditional drivers such as human capital, formal employment, or growth, while public spending largely remains reactive and focused on ex post responses. The discourse analysis highlights the substitution of institutional performance with a performative sovereignty, mobilized to legitimize the functional retreat of the state and justify the territorial fragmentation of social policies. The article introduces the concept of "silent collapse" to describe a regime of diffuse and discursively constructed institutional erosion. At the operational level, it suggests a reorientation of public policies around three priorities: refocusing education on measurable learning and local employability, territorializing basic social services through pilot districts outside Bamako, and strengthening budgetary composition rules to ensure fairer allocation. In this regard, the study contributes to a critical political economy of poverty and state fragility in postcolonial contexts, while providing practical benchmarks for policymakers.

Keywords: Mali.; AES; économie politique critique; économie informelle; État fragile; vulnérabilité structurelle; capital humain; effondrement silencieux (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Published in Revue Internationale de la Recherche Scientifique, 2025, 3 (5), pp.5204-5229. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.17249558⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05294970

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17249558

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