An Assessment of Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Poverty in Selected West African Countries

Godwin Akpan (), Paul Orebiyi and Oluwatosin Akinbode
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Godwin Akpan: Department of Economics, University of Uyo, Nigeria.
Paul Orebiyi: Department of Economics, University of Uyo, Nigeria.
Oluwatosin Akinbode: Department of Economics, University of Uyo, Nigeria.

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Abstract: This study examines the impact of inflation, exchange rate, and selected macroeconomic variables on poverty in Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, and Liberia over the period 2000–2023. Poverty is proxied by GDP per capita, while the explanatory variables include inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure on social services, money supply, and net exports. To capture both cross-country and country-specific dynamics, the study employs panel data analysis using a fixed effects (Panel Least Squares) model alongside country-specific Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions. The results reveal that inflation and money supply exert a significant negative impact on poverty reduction across the five countries, with particularly strong effects observed in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Government expenditure on social services exhibits a mixed influence, significant in Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire but insignificant in the remaining countries. These findings revealed the critical role of price stability and sound monetary management in poverty alleviation. The study contributes to the literature by providing updated multi-country evidence on the macroeconomic determinants of poverty in West Africa. It recommends that policymakers prioritize inflation-targeting frameworks, improve the efficiency of social spending, and strengthen macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable poverty reduction.

Date: 2026-01-03
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Published in Journal of Economics and Trade, 2026, 11 (1), pp.60 - 77

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05446353

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