The influence of oil price fluctuations on Morocco's economic performance: Empirical analysis using the VECM model

L'influence des fluctuations des prix du pétrole sur la performance économique du Maroc: Analyse empirique avec le modèle VECM

Abdelillah Moustahfid, Safae Abouali, Abdellah Echaoui and Ismail El Balghity
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Abdelillah Moustahfid: Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat
Safae Abouali: Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat
Abdellah Echaoui: Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat
Ismail El Balghity: Université Sultan Moulay Slimane de Béni Mellal

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Abstract: This study analyses the impact of oil prices on Morocco's GDP. It uses an empirical approach based on a vector error correction model (VECM) incorporating five variables: GDP, oil prices, consumer prices, balance of payments, exports and imports, over a 32-year period from 1991 to 2022.The results show that oil price fluctuations have a significant influence on Morocco's long-term economic performance. In particular, an increase in oil prices has a negative effect on GDP, highlighting the Moroccan economy's heavy dependence on energy imports.

Keywords: Energy; Morocco; Oil prices; GDP; VECM model; Maroc; Energie; Prix de pétrole; PIB; Modèle VECM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
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Published in International Journal of Accounting, Finance, Auditing, Management and Economics, 2026, 7 (1), pp.544-562. ⟨10.5281/zenodo.18093280⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05462810

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18093280

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