Demographic Winter, Economic Structure and Productivity in Japan

Gilles Dufrénot, Mathilde Esposito () and Eva Moreno-Galbis
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Gilles Dufrénot: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Aix-en-Provence - Sciences Po Aix - Institut d'études politiques d'Aix-en-Provence
Mathilde Esposito: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Eva Moreno-Galbis: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Low fertility rates, mortality outstripping the birth rate, aging and pop-ulation contraction characterize a new demographic transition (the so-called "fifth stage"). This chapter seeks to evaluate how this phenomenon has impacted the Japanese economic structure and overall productivity. We extend Autor and Dorn's (2013) theoretical framework to introduce two key mechanisms that have been at play since the 2000s: (i) a growing complementarity between goods and services consumption, and (ii) the substitution of older workers engaged in routine tasks with technological capital. The model predicts an increasing concentration of low-skilled workers in the service sector, which should aggravate productivity gaps between industry and services. Using stochastic frontier models and EU-KLEMS data, we compute industry-by-industry TFP growth frontiers in order to check if theoretical predictions match with Japanese reality.

Keywords: Japan; Economic Structure; Technological Change; Productivity; Demographic Transition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10-18
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Published in Emerging Markets and Industrialized Countries in the New Wave of Globalization, Springer Nature Switzerland, pp.206-242, 2025, Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, 978-3-032-04602-4. ⟨10.1007/978-3-032-04602-4_10⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05467028

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-04602-4_10

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