Beliefs about EU 2030 climate commitments across public, expert, and policy audiences

Loïc Berger (), Thibault Richard, Johannes Emmerling, Thomas Epper (), Nahed Eddai (), Uyanga Turmunkh, Mary Sanford, Silvia Pianta and Valentina Bosetti ()
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Loïc Berger: CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]
Thibault Richard: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales
Johannes Emmerling: CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Thomas Epper: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Nahed Eddai: BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
Uyanga Turmunkh: LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Mary Sanford: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (Milan)
Silvia Pianta: CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Valentina Bosetti: Bocconi University [Milan, Italy], EIEE - European Institute on Economics and the Environment, CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna]

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Abstract: The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. While technical, economic, and political feasibility have been widely analyzed, far less is known about a critical enabling factor: whether key societal actors perceive these targets as credible and achievable. In this study, we elicit probabilistic beliefs about future EU emission reductions from a sample of citizens designed to be representative across 12 EU member states and compare them with the expectations of climate policymakers and experts. Our findings reveal that all three groups anticipate substantial progress compared to current levels. At the same time, citizens are more skeptical about achieving the target and substantially more uncertain than elites, expecting, on average, a 43% reduction by 2030 compared to the EU's 55% reference. Moreover, we identify a notable misalignment: elites tend to systematically underestimate public skepticism. This gap underscores the need to improve policy communication, directly address citizens' concerns, and foster a shared understanding to enhance the perceived credibility and political sustainability of the EU's climate goals.

Date: 2026-02-23
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Published in Environmental Research Letters, 2026, ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ae491b⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05534706

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae491b

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