Are Heavy-Duty Vehicles at Crossroads? A Real Options and Innovation Diffusion Perspective on Hydrogen Fuel Cell Versus Battery Electric Trucks

Oana Ionescu () and Alain Kibangou ()
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Oana Ionescu: GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Alain Kibangou: DANCE - Dynamics and Control of Networks - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - GIPSA-PAD - GIPSA Pôle Automatique et Diagnostic - GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes

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Abstract: The transition from diesel to zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) is a critical decision for industry stakeholders, shaped by uncertainty, technological competition, and irreversible investments. This research examines how fleet operators navigate the choice between fuel cell hydrogen (FCH) and battery electric (BE) HDV, considering market dynamics, policy incentives, and infrastructure development. Using a real options framework, we capture the value of waiting for new information before committing to decarbonization, while integrating innovation diffusion models to account for adoption patterns. We determine when a fleet should switch to FCH HDV and how many vehicles to adopt at the trigger. Our approach provides insights into optimal investment timing, policy effectiveness, and the factors driving the large-scale deployment of clean HDV. JEL Classification: Q42, Alternative Energy Sources; Q48, Energy: Government Policy; R40, Transportation Economics: General; C15, Statistical Simulation Methods: General; D81, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

Keywords: Energy and environment-R&; D and Emerging Technologies; Hydrogen-transportation; Hydrogen-R&; Hydrogen-policy and regulation; Hydrogen-markets and prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-18
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Published in Energy Journal, 2026, ⟨10.1177/01956574261425748⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05577775

DOI: 10.1177/01956574261425748

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