The Thwarted Resilience Trap: Political Survival, External Stabilization, and Structural Non-Transformation in Fragile States

Etienne Fakaba Sissoko ()
Additional contact information
Etienne Fakaba Sissoko: Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako, CRAPES MALI - Centre de Recherche et d'Analyses Politiques, Economiques et Sociales du Mali, Faculté des Sciences économiques et de Gestion - USSGB - Université des sciences sociales et de gestion de Bamako

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: This article examines the effects of political shocks on growth and structural transformation in a context of persistent fragility, using Mali as a case study for the period 1990-2023. It employs a counterfactual strategy combining synthetic control methods and time-series analysis to estimate Mali's trajectories in the absence of the 2012 shock. The findings reveal a robust decoupling: the shock generates a negative but transitory effect on growth, while producing a persistent deterioration in structural transformation. This divergence indicates that macroeconomic resilience does not translate into a dynamic of productive transformation. To interpret this result, the article develops the framework of the thwarted resilience trap, in which stabilization mechanisms, especially external ones, relax short-term constraints while weakening incentives for the accumulation of capabilities. The results are consistent with this mechanism, without establishing strict causal identification. The article thus redefines resilience as a nonmonotonic property and proposes an interpretation based on an intertemporal trade-off.

Keywords: O43; C21; C33; H12; development trap; external stabilization; synthetic control; political shocks; resilience; structural transformation; fragile states; fragile states structural transformation resilience political shocks synthetic control external stabilization development trap JEL codes: O11 O43 H12 C33 C21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-24
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05606019v1
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in 2026, ⟨10.5281/zenodo.19855453⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://hal.science/hal-05606019v1/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05606019

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19855453

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().