A Compartmental Model of Cycling Adoption with Social and Contextual Drivers

Eduardo Rodriguez-Canales, Paolo Frasca () and Alain Kibangou ()
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Eduardo Rodriguez-Canales: DANCE - Dynamics and Control of Networks - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - GIPSA-PAD - GIPSA Pôle Automatique et Diagnostic - GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Paolo Frasca: DANCE - Dynamics and Control of Networks - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - GIPSA-PAD - GIPSA Pôle Automatique et Diagnostic - GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes
Alain Kibangou: DANCE - Dynamics and Control of Networks - Centre Inria de l'Université Grenoble Alpes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - GIPSA-PAD - GIPSA Pôle Automatique et Diagnostic - GIPSA-lab - Grenoble Images Parole Signal Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes

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Abstract: Policies promoting green transportation, particularly cycling, are gaining importance in the context of climate change. In order to elucidate the mechanisms behind cycling adoption, this paper proposes a novel compartmental model, which incorporates the time-varying effects of both social influence and contextual factors. We provide a mathematical analysis of the model, showing global convergence to an equilibrium. We also developed a case study of Grenoble, France, which showcases the model's ability to characterize cycling adoption dynamics, highlighting its potential to support sustainable transportation policy design.

Date: 2026-09-15
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05622159v1
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Published in The IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC 2026), IEEE, Sep 2026, Naples, Italy

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