International Economy: Did Someone Say “Resilience”?

Sylvain Bellefontaine, Christophe Barat, Hélène Ehrhart, Julien Gourdon, Marion Hémar, Vincent Joguet, Benoît Jonveaux, Amaury Mulliez () and Thibault Vasse
Additional contact information
Sylvain Bellefontaine: AFD - Agence française de développement
Christophe Barat: AFD - Agence française de développement
Hélène Ehrhart: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AFD - Agence française de développement
Julien Gourdon: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AFD - Agence française de développement
Marion Hémar: ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, AFD - Agence française de développement
Vincent Joguet: AFD - Agence française de développement
Benoît Jonveaux: AFD - Agence française de développement
Amaury Mulliez: AFD - Agence française de développement
Thibault Vasse: AFD - Agence française de développement

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Abstract: Shock after shock, the global economy continues to surprise observers with its "resilience," particularly when assessed through the lens of GDP growth. If the ongoing discussions between the United States and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz crisis reach a successful conclusion (within the 60-day period starting on June 17) and result in a lasting agreement, the International Energy Agency once again forecasts an oil supply surplus as early as 2027. Inflation expectations could then rapidly become reanchored at levels more consistent with central banks' targets. Under such a scenario, and although a return to normal operations for the Gulf's oil and gas infrastructure would still require several months, monetary policy could gradually ease again as confidence in the disinflation process strengthens. In this regard, the IMF's latest forecasts (April 2026) outline a baseline scenario in which global growth reaches 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, while growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) would be only marginally affected (3.9% in 2026 instead of the 4.0% projected last October, and 4.1% in 2027). Admittedly, these would represent historically low levels over two consecutive years, yet the global economy would avoid recession, unlike in 2009 or 2020. So, under this baseline scenario—which still appears somewhat optimistic at the time of publication—would the shock amount to little more than a temporary warning before a return to normal conditions?

Keywords: Macroeconmics; Disinflation; Monetary policies; Ouganda; Serbia; Egypt; Pakistan; Uzbekistan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-07-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05769344v1
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Published in 2026

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