The Impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on International Trade: A Review, Limits, and Prospects

L'impact des Nouvelles Routes de la Soie sur le commerce international: revue de la littérature, limites et perspectives

Damien Cubizol ()
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Damien Cubizol: CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne

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Abstract: Numerous studies have assessed the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on international trade through its investments in transport infrastructure. This article offers an extensive literature review, including the most recent research, to synthesize and compare findings from various perspectives. The results highlight a significant increase in trade for most participating countries, and considerable heterogeneity in the results depending on the methodologies, regions, economic sectors, trade infrastructure, and agreements considered. Moreover, the review describes the limitations of these studies and suggests potential directions for future research, both theoretical and empirical. In the final section, this work demonstrates that the evolution of factors such as trade dependence on China, the state of the Chinese economy, and the public debt of some developing countries may affect the Belt and Road Initiative and call into question existing findings in the literature.

Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative; international trade; investments in transport infrastructure; international development policies; Chinese economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07-16
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05610479v1
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Published in Revue d'Economie du Développement, 2025, 33 (1), pp.19-60. ⟨10.3917/edd.391.0021⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05610479

DOI: 10.3917/edd.391.0021

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