Human capital, unequal opportunities and productivity convergence: A global historical perspective, 1800–2100

Nitin Bharti, Amory Gethin, Thanasak Mark Jenmana, Zhexun Mo, Thomas Piketty () and Li Yang
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Nitin Bharti: UWA - The University of Western Australia, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Amory Gethin: BM = WB - La Banque Mondiale = The World Bank - WBG = GBM - World Bank Group = Groupe Banque Mondiale, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Thanasak Mark Jenmana: TU - Thammasat University, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Zhexun Mo: City Tech - New York City College of Technology [CUNY] - CUNY - City University of New York [New York], New York University - CUNY
Thomas Piketty: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, WIL - World Inequality Lab
Li Yang: Centre for European Economic Research (Mannheim, Germany) - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) - University of Mannheim = Universität Mannheim, WIL - World Inequality Lab

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Abstract: This paper constructs a new database on public expenditure and revenue and their components, particularly education and health expenditure, covering all world regions over the 1800–2025 period. Human capital expenditure has grown substantially, but with large and persistent inequalities. Public education expenditure per school-age individual in Sub-Saharan Africa is about 3% of the level observed in Europe and North America in 2025 at purchasing power parity, compared to 6% in 1980 and 4% in 1950. Human capital expenditure strongly correlates with productivity growth, especially for public education and in poor countries. Estimated returns from our macro-historical database are around 10%, in line with micro studies. Finally, we present simulations based on illustrative human capital expenditure trajectories over the 2025–2100 period. In particular, we analyze the conditions under which convergence in human capital expenditure could lead to global productivity convergence by 2100.

Date: 2026-03
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Published in Journal of Public Economics, 2026, 255, ⟨10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105578⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05650193

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105578

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