British Voting Intentions and the far Reach of 9/11

Elena Stancanelli ()
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Elena Stancanelli: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: This study adds to the literature on the effects of terrorism on voting behaviours. It examines the impact of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, in New York, on voting preferences in the United Kingdom, implementing a Regression Discontinuity Design with British Household Panel Survey daily data on thousands of British voters, observed before and after 9/11. It concludes that intentions to vote for the Conservative Party significantly increased, while support for the Labour Party declined, at least among marginal voters. In contrast, voters close to a political party strengthened their support for Labour, the incumbent party at the time, to reduce that for the Conservatives, as in a rally‐round‐the‐flag effect. Voters' responses significantly differed by gender: marginal votes for the Conservatives increased especially among men, while the rally‐round‐the‐flag effect was mostly driven by the responses of women. These findings may help reconcile earlier, contrasting evidence of terrorism voting impacts.

Date: 2026-05
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Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2026, 73 (2), ⟨10.1111/sjpe.70036⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05662091

DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.70036

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