Phase Transitions and Spatial Complexity: Modeling Land-use in Southeast France

Pedro Lopez-Merino (), Paolo Zeppini (), Nathalie Lazaric (), Stéphane Bouissou () and Karine Emsellem ()
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Pedro Lopez-Merino: GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur
Paolo Zeppini: GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, University of Bath [Bath]
Nathalie Lazaric: GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Stéphane Bouissou: ESPACE - Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - AU - Avignon Université - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur
Karine Emsellem: ESPACE - Études des Structures, des Processus d’Adaptation et des Changements de l’Espace - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - AU - Avignon Université - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur

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Abstract: This paper investigates how introducing explicit spatial features alters phase-transition dynamics in economic land-use models. Building upon a recent hybrid agent-based and equation-based model of agricultural land-use transitions, we incorporate real-world geographical constraints (irreversible urbanization, coastal development bias, and river valleys) observed in the Alpes-Maritimes region of Southeast France. Our simulations show that while coastal urbanization dampens the potential for agricultural resurgence, natural valley corridors counteract this effect by fostering new agricultural clusters. These findings highlight the complex interplay between economic dynamics and spatial constraints, suggesting that policies fostering agricultural revival must account for territorial heterogeneity.

Date: 2026-07-12
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05741317v1
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Published in 13th Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs): "Environmental Modelling for a Resilient Future: Integrating Data, Systems, Stakeholders and Societal Systems", "Environmental Modelling for a Resilient Future: Integrating Data, Systems, Stakeholders and Societal Systems", Jul 2026, Dublin, Ireland. pp.286-287, ⟨10.5281/zenodo.22217085⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05741317

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22217085

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