In the Desert

La traversée du désert

Xavier Timbeau, Hélène Baudchon (), Odile Chagny (), Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Gael Dupont (), Amel Falah (), Sabine Le Bayon (), Matthieu Lemoine, Catherine Mathieu (), Paola Veroni (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Christine Rifflart (), Elena Stancanelli () and Eric Heyer
Additional contact information
Hélène Baudchon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Odile Chagny: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA
Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Elena Stancanelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor

PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) from HAL

Abstract: In 2002 economic growth was weaker than anticipated. The uncertainty due to the geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices and depressed equity prices as well as business and consumer confidence. However, the Iraqi issue does not entirely explain the weakness of activity in Europe and in the USA. Private investment is impeded not only by excessive spare capacity, but also by the need to improve corporate balance sheets and to lower indebtedness. Rising unemployment and the collapse of stock markets hamper households' consumption and subsequently business investment. Company profitability will be back to more reasonable levels around mid-2003 and a slow recovery is expected from then, although output growth will remain below its potential. One important reason for the US economy to grow more rapidly than the Euro Area economies lies in the more expansionary policy mix.

Keywords: Growth; Global economy; Outlook; Croissance; Économie mondiale; Perspectives (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458666v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2003, 85, pp.11 - 92. ⟨10.3917/reof.085.0011⟩

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Working Paper: In the Desert (2003)
Working Paper: In the Desert (2003)
Working Paper: In the Desert (2003)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03458666

DOI: 10.3917/reof.085.0011

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