Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence

Dominic Rohner (), Uwe Sunde (), Oliver Vanden Eynde (), Austin Wright () and Jing-Rong Zeng
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Dominic Rohner: Graduate Institute Geneva, UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research
Uwe Sunde: CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, LMU - Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich] = Ludwig Maximilians Universität München
Oliver Vanden Eynde: CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris
Austin Wright: Harris School of Public Policy - University of Chicago
Jing-Rong Zeng: PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national humanitarian donor. The social and political effects of abrupt aid withdrawal are poorly understood, especially in fragile states where relief is a key safety net. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on the shutdown's impact on subnational conflict across Africa. Leveraging historical exposure to USAID programs, we show that conflict increased sharply after the shutdown in areas that previously received the most support. The increase spanned incidence and severity, including armed clashes, protests, and riots. The effects appeared immediately and persisted for months. Inclusive local institutions substantially mitigated these harms, underscoring vulnerability under weak governance and the capacity of institutions to buffer humanitarian and economic shocks.

Date: 2026
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05626300v1
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Published in Science, 2026, 392 (6799), ⟨10.1126/science.aed6802⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-05626300

DOI: 10.1126/science.aed6802

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