Staying put in the face of risk? Perceptions, experiences and migration responses in global perspective

Rémy Bellaunay, Ilse Ruyssen and Claudia Senik ()
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Rémy Bellaunay: University of Glasgow
Ilse Ruyssen: SU - Sorbonne Université, UGENT - Universiteit Gent = Ghent University = Université de Gand, UNU-CRIS - United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies - UNU - United Nations University
Claudia Senik: SU - Sorbonne Université, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, IUF - Institut universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche

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Abstract: This paper investigates how perceived and experienced risks shape both long-term aspirations to migrate internationally and short-term intentions to move, using matched data from the Gallup World Poll and World Risk Poll run in 2019 across 42 countries. Both risk perceptions and direct experiences are associated with migration responses. Worries about food insecurity, water scarcity, and violent crime are consistently linked to higher migration aspirations and intentions, while climate-related concerns appear to influence aspirations only indirectly, primarily through their connection to food and water insecurity. Direct experiences of food insecurity, violent crime, and mental health problems also predict a greater desire or likelihood to move. These relationships are markedly stronger in high-income countries – particularly for international aspirations – and largely absent in lower-income settings. At the same time, risks trigger short-term intentions to move among lower-educated individuals in low-income countries. This contradiction suggests that internal mobility may remain a more feasible response to adversity in resource-constrained contexts.

Keywords: Migration aspirations; Migration intentions; Risk perceptions; Risk exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-05324743v1
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