Photovoltaic deployment: from subsidies to a market-driven growth: A panel econometrics approach

Anna Créti and Léonide Michael Sinsin
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Anna Créti: X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Léonide Michael Sinsin: X-DEP-ECO - Département d'Économie de l'École Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris

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Abstract: Many reviews were published these last years about the photovoltaic development. It also reflects the importance of green energy and business at the heart of today's preoccupations. According to the Global Market Outlook of May 2012, the global cumulative installed capacity switched from 40 GW to 70GW between 2010 and 2011. By the past, the PV growth was geographically concentred in a small fraction of countries: more than 70% in Germany, Spain, Italy and Bulgary for Eeurope, United States and Japan for the Rest of the World. Without deploying in their country, China firms have enacted an overwhelming competition to the former majors. In 2011, more than six international firms have bankrupted such as Q-Cells, the German leader producer. The main purpose of this paper is to make up an econometric model close to the market evolution. This paper differs from those earlier studies in that we identify a number of issues to explain the worldwide pricing. We use a panel estimation approach to identify variables which drive the photovoltaic production and installation. This analysis represents an opportunity to developp PV in developing countries (India and Africa fot examples) where there is a real lack of electricity.

Date: 2012-11-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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