Quel rendement attendre de l’épargne retraite pour pallier la baisse projetée des taux de remplacement en répartition ?

Stéphane Hamayon, (), Florence Legros () and Yannick Pradat
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Stéphane Hamayon,: CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, ICN Business School
Florence Legros: CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, ICN Business School
Yannick Pradat: Harvest France

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Abstract: The French "PACTE" Law (May 22, 2019) contains several measures relating to the development of retirement savings. The primary goal of the bill is to standardize the existing retirement savings products, while financing the economy and offering savers a higher expected return in a competitive framework. The new law asks at least two questions. That of the effect of pension assets on economic growth, and the issue of modelling stock price dynamics. This paper focuses on assessing the risks associated with providing retirement benefits through a funded plan and analyzes the «well-being» that consumers can get from pension funds compared to PAYG schemes. The results provided by a model built to study the linked impacts of demography and the economy on the French pension system are unambiguous. The comparison of internal rates of return show that if stock prices follow a random walk, a risk averse investor will get more «utility» from PAYG scheme. On the other hand, if stock prices are mean-reverting a massive investment in risky assets would compete public pension plans.

Keywords: Epargne retraite; Croissance endogène; Time dependent O-U process; TRI. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-09-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age
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