Inflation et tensions

Céline Antonin, Elliot Aurissergues (), Christophe Blot (), Magali Dauvin (), Amel Falah (), Eric Heyer, Sabine Le Bayon (), Pierre Madec (), Catherine Mathieu (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Christine Rifflart () and Raul Sampognaro ()
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Elliot Aurissergues: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Magali Dauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Amel Falah: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Pierre Madec: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Raul Sampognaro: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Two years after the outbreak of COVID, the pandemic has not come to a halt and new variants have appeared. The recovery is confirmed in all geographic areas. The business climate in the main branches of the economies of the European Union has improved markedly, particularly in industry. This situation is also reflected in the evolution of the activity. The return of GDPs to their counterfactual reference level is accompanied by the resurgence of tensions which are manifested by a rebound in inflation, but also by the insufficiency of productive resources, causing difficulties in recruitment and supply difficulties. Labor market tightness is particularly high in the United States, reflected in accelerating wages and unit labor costs. Under these conditions, the inflation observed in 2021 could be long-lasting and amplified by the geopolitical situation.

Keywords: Conjoncture; Climat des affaires; Inflation; Marché du travail; Matières premières Codes; Business surveys; Labour market; Commodities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-03
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03615358
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Published in [Rapport de recherche] 01-2022, OFCE. 2022, pp.34

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Related works:
Working Paper: Inflation de tensions (2022)
Working Paper: Inflation de tensions (2022)
Working Paper: Inflation de tensions (2022)
Working Paper: Inflation et tensions (2022)
Working Paper: Inflation de tensions (2022)
Working Paper: Inflation de tensions (2022)
Working Paper: Inflation de tensions (2022)
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