Agricultural Productivity Growth and Deforestation in the Tropics

Mathieu Couttenier, Sébastien Desbureaux () and Raphael Soubeyran
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Sébastien Desbureaux: CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier

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Abstract: We analyze the impact of agricultural productivity growth on tropical deforestation. Our dynamic model of forest-to-farmland conversion incorporates costs and market constraints on agricultural output, emphasizing that productivity growth, rather than its absolute level, shapes deforestation patterns. The model predicts that rising agricultural productivity, reflected by declining fertilizer price growth, has an ambiguous effect on deforestation at the local level. Using tropical forest loss data (2000-2022) and fertilizer price variations, we find a negative relationship between fertilizer price growth and deforestation, particularly in regions with high market potential. We find that the effect of fertilizer price growth on deforestation is much larger than the effect of output prices growth.

Date: 2025-01-31
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