Cloud failure and cyber insurance: calibration of stress scenarios and diversification

Défaillance du cloud et cyberassurance: calibration de scénarios de stress et diversification

Olivier Lopez () and Daniel Nkameni
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Olivier Lopez: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Daniel Nkameni: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: The expansion of the cyber insurance market remains exposed to the threat of accumulation events that could simultaneously affect a large number of policyholders. Although few such catastrophes have been observed so far, apart from worldwide cyberattacks such as WannaCry and NotPetya in 2017, the nature of cyber risk makes their occurrence plausible. Stress-testing tools are therefore needed to assess whether an insurance portfolio can withstand such crises. In this perspective, the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) has identified cloud outage as one of the key scenarios to consider in cyber insurance stress-testing frameworks. In this paper, we propose a framework to model and calibrate cloud-outage scenarios and to measure the diversification of a cyber insurance portfolio. We also show how this diversification can protect against accumulation risk and provide underwriting guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of a portfolio to cloud-outage scenarios.

Keywords: stress scenarios; Cloud failure and cyber insurance; portfolio optimization; cloud outage; Cyber insurance; Cyberassurance; Scénarios de stress; Interruption du cloud; Optimisation de portefeuille (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-09-28
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04731704v2
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