The dynamics of fertility under environmental concerns

Paolo Melindi-Ghidi () and Thomas Seegmuller ()
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Paolo Melindi-Ghidi: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Thomas Seegmuller: AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: Recent data from US states reveal a negative correlation between environmental degradation and environmental concerns, which in turn seem inversely linked to fertility rates. We introduce a dynamic model to examine explicitly this interplay and explain the observed positive correlation between the carbon intensity of the economy and fertility in data from US states. The key ingredient of our model is that preferences for the number of children and environmental concerns may be complementary or substitutable. Interesting results occur when environmental concerns and the number of children are substitutable. At a stable steady state, a stronger effect of environmental concerns on household preferences reduces the number of children, as stressed by recent literature. The dynamics show that lower fertility rates are associated with lower environmental impacts from economic production, such as reduced carbon intensity.

Keywords: Carbon intensity; Fertility; Environmental concerns; Environmental degradation; Transitional dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-10-02
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-05294886

DOI: 10.1007/s10640-025-00994-y

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