One year into the Covid-19 crisis: corporate activity in France A granular data analysis

Une année de crise COVID: impact sur la dynamique de l’activité des entreprises en France Une évaluation sur données individuelles

Benjamin Bureau, Anne Duquerroy, Julien Giorgi, Mathias Lé, Suzanne Scott and Frederic Vinas
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Benjamin Bureau: Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France
Anne Duquerroy: Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France
Julien Giorgi: INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)
Mathias Lé: Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France
Suzanne Scott: INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)

Working Papers from HAL

Abstract: Taking advantage of detailed firm-level data on VAT returns, we estimate the monthly impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the turnover of more than 645,000 French firms. Our approach, based on a micro-simulation model, is innovative in a triple way. Firstly, we quantify the activity loss with respect to a counterfactual situation in which the crisis would not have hit. Secondly, we estimate this shock at the firm level, enabling a thorough analysis of activity loss heterogeneity throughout the crisis. In particular, we shade light on the dispersion of the shock both within and between industries. We show that the industry the firm operates in explains up to 48% of the monthly activity shocks' variance weighted by employment, a much larger share than in a normal year. Finally, we leverage our monthly firm-level data on sales to show how corporate activity has evolved along four distinct trajectories throughout 2020. The main determinant of belonging to a given profile of activity is the firm industry – defined at a very granular level. Conditional on industry, the activity trajectory is also correlated with the ability to adapt some firms have demonstrated during the crisis in terms of organization and production, particularly with regard to the development of new products or delivery modes as well as the realization of specific investments in digital technologies.

Keywords: inequalities; micro-simulation; non-financial corporations; Covid-19; economic activity; inégalités; sociétés non-financières; activité économique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05377108v1
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