The ECB’s monetary policy stance in an uncertain environment

Christophe Blot, Jerome Creel, François Geerolf (), Giovanni Ricco and Davide Romelli
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Trinity College Dublin
François Geerolf: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research
Giovanni Ricco: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Trinity College Dublin
Davide Romelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Trinity College Dublin

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Abstract: In this paper, we review the recent economic outlook, policy decisions and communication of the ECB against the backdrop of growing uncertainty. First, inflation heterogeneity has receded with inflation, thus contributing to facilitating the design of monetary policy. Second, monetary easing is somewhat dampened by the reduction in ECB's balance sheet. Third, ECB has chosen to foreground uncertainty more explicitly in its publicfacing communication, potentially as a tool to manage expectations and signal caution to a broader audience.

Date: 2025-06-23
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-05479486v1
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Published in E 764.390, European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. 2025, pp.1-32

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Working Paper: The ECB’s monetary policy stance in an uncertain environment (2025)
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