From the financial crisis to the economic crisis. The impact of the financial trouble of 2007-2008 on the growth of seven advanced countries

De la crise financière à la crise économique. L’impact des perturbations financières de 2007 et 2008 sur la croissance de sept pays industrialisés

Jean-Charles Bricongne, Jean-Marc Fournier, Vincent Lapègue and Olivier Monso
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Jean-Charles Bricongne: Banque de France, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)
Jean-Marc Fournier: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)
Vincent Lapègue: INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)
Olivier Monso: INSEE - Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE)

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Abstract: The financial crisis started in the United States in 2007 on the subprime mortgage market and, then, gradually spread to all financial markets and strongly impacted growth in the main advanced countries through the years 2008 and 2009. Given its scope and its subsequent uncertainty, we discuss the capacity of macroeconometric models estimated on the past to quantify its various transmission channels. We try to measure the total impact of the crisis on the economy of seven advanced countries and on the euro area as a whole using the macroeconomic multinational model NiGEM. During the years 2008 and 2009, Germany suffered from a particularly strong drop in world trade, which would explain more than a half of the effect of the crisis measured in this way in 2009. The United Kingdom and the United States may especially have been affected by wealth effects and a strong drop in their inner demand. This drop may partly have been due to credit tightening. Japan seems to be the most affected country in 2009: the drop in foreign trade was exacerbated by the appreciation of the yen and investment seems to have strongly over-reacted to the fall in activity. A contrario, the fact that France suffered from a less marked drop in output in 2009 might be explained by an absence of over-reaction in economic behaviours and less sensitivity to the fall in world trade.

Keywords: macro-financial linkages; financial crisis; simulation; macroeconometric model; liens macro-financiers financial crisis; modèle macroéconométrique; crise financière (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-02
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://insee.hal.science/hal-05483771v1
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