International Trade by Production Stage: What’s Real?

Pierre Cotterlaz, Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman and Deniz Ünal
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Pierre Cotterlaz: CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Guillaume Gaulier: CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France
Aude Sztulman: DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme, LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Deniz Ünal: CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

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Abstract: The intensity of global value chains can be proxied by the share of intermediate goods in world trade. This indicator is however affected by price effects, which were particularly strong during the recent inflation episode of the early 2020s. To neutralize these price effects, we compute price deflators by production stage, obtaining series of trade in volume. The deflated series reveal that the share of intermediate goods in world trade is relatively stable since the early 2000s. If anything, trade in parts and components, a key feature of global value chains, seems slightly more dynamic than other production stages. Our results further show that parts and components, as well as capital goods, experienced the fastest trend growth between 2000 and 2023, while primary goods lagged behind. Finally, trade volumes appear strongly procyclical overall, except for primary goods, which display no significant correlation with the global output gap.

Keywords: Globalization; Global value chains; International trade in volume; Intermediate goods; Production stages; Parts and components (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-02-04
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