Customer journey and commercial performance in automobile insurance: a longitudinal analysis 2023-2026

Parcours client et performance commerciale en assurance automobile: analyse longitudinale 2023-2026

Ulysse Nangbé
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Ulysse Nangbé: Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, Nantes Univ - UFR FLCE - Nantes Université - UFR Faculté des Langues et Cultures Etrangères - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université

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Abstract: This working paper documents three complementary empirical phenomena observed within a single French affinity insurer over the period 2023-2026, drawing on two longitudinal datasets. Between 95% and 97% of digital subscriptions ultimately convert through agency channels — a pattern stable over four years. The year 2025 marks a structural pricing shock: a decline of 5 to 10 percentage points depending on the channel over 12 consecutive months, with no alert triggered by the static models in place. These findings contribute to a broader reflection on the robustness of predictive customer behaviour models facing structural disruptions, and open the way to dynamic drift detection and causal inference approaches.

Keywords: automobile insurance; dynamic models; survival analysis; multichannel customer journey; pricing shock; concept drift; cross-channel attribution; conversion rate; distribution channels; modèles dynamiques; analyse de survie; parcours client multicanal; choc tarifaire; dérive de concept; scoring statique; attribution cross-canal; taux de conversion; canaux de distribution; assurance automobile (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-03
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