Geopolitical Oil Risk and the Maritime Geography of Trade

Le risque géopolitique pétrolier et la géographie maritime du commerce

Stéphane Auray (), Patrick Fève () and Zakaria Moussa ()
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Stéphane Auray: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business
Patrick Fève: TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Université Toulouse 1 Capitole
Zakaria Moussa: LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université

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Abstract: How does oil-related geopolitical risk reshape international trade? Combining a Bayesian structural VAR with a maritime-exposure network covering 37 countries, we document a persistent trade contraction following a transitory Oil-GPR innovation. Trade falls more than industrial production over the medium run, while trade prices respond modestly. Bilateral local projections reveal a larger short-run export contraction along high-Route-Risk corridors among exporters dependent on strategic chokepoints. This differential survives structural-shock uncertainty and country-specific monthly conditions, and conditional estimates indicate stronger transmission when supply chains are strained. Complementary CIF-FOB evidence suggests differential valuation adjustment, but becomes imprecise after shock uncertainty is propagated. Event studies identify episode-specific benefits from geographical alternatives rather than uniform protection. The results connect aggregate trade adjustment to maritime geography without attributing it to a single shipping-cost mechanism.

Keywords: Geopolitical oil shocks; World trade; Route risk; Maritime chokepoints; CIF-FOB wedge (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-10-30
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05846144v1
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