Right-wing terrorism and far-right support: Evidence from anti-Roma attacks in Hungary

Gábor Békés (), Attila Gáspár (), Gábor Simonovits () and Márton Végh
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Gábor Békés: Central European University; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies
Attila Gáspár: ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies
Gábor Simonovits: Central European University; ELTE TK

No 2520, KRTK-KTI WORKING PAPERS from Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies

Abstract: How do ethnically motivated terrorist attacks shape electoral support for the far right? We study a unique case: a coordinated series of anti-Roma murders in Hungary in 2008–2009, the most severe episode of anti-minority violence in the country since World War II. Combining difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods, we compare attacked settlements to multiple counterfactuals, including planned-but-unrealized targets. We find that Jobbik, Hungary’s radical right party, gained 11–14 percentage points more support in attacked villages than in comparable controls in the 2010 election—an increase 53–70% larger than baseline trends. The effect persisted for several years and spilled over to nearby settlements. In contrast to some research from Western Europe suggesting that right-wing terrorism can reduce far-right appeal, our findings highlight how deep-seated prejudice can reverse this pattern. The results underscore the importance of antecedent inter-group relations in conditioning political reactions to ethnic violence.

Keywords: electoral behavior; prejudice; terrorism; conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 J15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
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