Public Purchasing Subsidies and the Fear of Missing Out: A Full-Sample Analysis of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Germany

Carsten Creutzburg (), Leo M. Doerr () and Wolfgang Maennig ()
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Carsten Creutzburg: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Leo M. Doerr: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Wolfgang Maennig: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg

No 81, Working Papers from Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg

Abstract: This is the first study to employ a national full sample dataset for a socioeconomic analysis of the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). We use the most recent vehicle registration dataset from the Fed-eral Motor Transport Authority of Germany, which includes the entire underlying population of German vehicle owners. Combining web-scraped data covering all vehicles available in the German market with actual registration data allows a unique analysis of the individual decisions to purchase an EV. Our results suggest that financial incentives are the most relevant factor for EV adoption, with a €1,000 subsidy in-crease boosting EV choice probability by 1.2 percentage points. Given that EVs currently constitute 12% of newly registered private vehicles in Germany, our model calculates that, in the absence of subsidies, this share would be 1.2%. In contrast, a uniform maximum subsidy of €9,000 from 2011 to 2023 could have increased the adoption rate to 20%. These results underscore the importance of fin ancial incentives in achieving policy targets for EV adoption and suggest that purchase subsidies exhibit increasing marginal returns.

Keywords: Electric vehicles; Vehicle choice; Financial Incentives; Discrete choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C35 H23 Q42 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2025-04-15
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Published in Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions, Issue 81, 2025

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