U.S. Tariffs and Greek Exports

Stelios Giannoulakis, Angelos Kanas, Marina-Eliza Spaliara and John Tsoukalas

GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe from Hellenic Observatory, LSE

Abstract: We examine the effects of the 2018-2019 U.S. tariffs on Greek goods exports using industry- and firm-level data within a difference-in-differences framework. The results reveal considerable heterogeneity: eight out of seventeen products experienced declines in exports, six saw increases, and the rest showed no significant change. Firm-level analysis confirms part of this heterogeneity. While many export-oriented firms were resilient, some in specific industries experienced either export and sales declines or gains. A notable case is the aluminum sector, where firms experienced substantial increases in exports, pointing to potential sector-specific advantages. We also find modest evidence of export market substitution as a mitigating strategy. Our findings highlight the nuanced, sector-dependent effects of trade policy shifts. Policymakers should design support for affected firms through targeted trade promotion, market diversification incentives, and streamlined export procedures to enhance resilience against trade shocks.

Keywords: U.S. tariffs; Greek exports; Difference-in-Difference; export market substitution; export support schemes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hel:greese:215

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