RISIKO FOR KOLLAPS PÅ AKTIEMARKEDET- ELLER HVAD?

Jan Overgaard Olesen and Ole Risager
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Jan Overgaard Olesen: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3 C, 5. sal, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
Ole Risager: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Postal: Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Solbjerg Plads 3 C, 5. sal, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark

No 02-1999, Working Papers from Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: Med afsæt i et historisk lavt dividende-pris (D-P) forhold har Tom Engsted & Carsten

Tanggaard prædikteret, at det danske aktiemarked vil falde med 50 % i.f.t niveauet i 1996,

idet en tilbagevenden af D-P ratioen til det historiske gennemsnit hævdes primært at komme i

stand via styrtdykkende aktie kurser. Forecastet bygger på den præmis, at D-P forholdet vil

vende tilbage til det historiske gennemsnit, men det behøver ingenlunde at være tilfældet

grundet fundamentalt ændrede skatteregler. Vi præsenterer alternative forecasts baseret ikke

kun på D-P ratioen, men også på en række andre nøgletal, jf. Olesen & Risager (1998). Disse

forecasts er ikke følsomme overfor præmisser vedrørende D-P forholdets tilbagevenden til det

historiske gennemsnit.

Keywords: Stock market; Denmark; D-P ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 1999-01-01
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