The Emerging Global Market for Energy Transition Critical Minerals: Competition, Cooperation, or Cartelisation?

Anupama Sen (), Tooraj Jamasb and Natsuko Toba
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Anupama Sen: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/person/dr-anupama-sen
Natsuko Toba: Energy Policy Research Group, University of Cambridge

No 6-2025, Working Papers from Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics

Abstract: As the clean energy transition progresses, critical minerals and metals will be essential components in the deployment of clean energy technologies, with estimates of their demand set to soar. However, proven reserves, as well as processing facilities, are geographically concentrated in a small number of countries. This paper addresses the following research question: how will the emerging market structure for critical minerals develop: will producers and consumers compete, cooperate, or cartelise? We contribute to the literature by exploring frameworks to describe some possible outcomes of market evolution based on characteristics of the current critical mineral market, preconditions for competition, cooperation or cartelisation, and case studies. We draw on insights from collusive oligopolies in the international market for oil and gas.

Keywords: Critical minerals; Energy transition; Supply chains; Decarbonisation; Industrial organisation; Cartels; Markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L13 O24 Q21 Q34 Q35 Q37 Q42 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2025-07-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-com, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-reg
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