Choosing Between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study

Sandro Ambuehl () and Heidi Thysen
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Sandro Ambuehl: Dept. of Economics, University of Zurich, Postal: University of Zurich, Department of Economics, UBS Center for Economics in Society, Rämistrasse 71 , 8006 Zürich, Switzerland, https://sites.google.com/site/sandroambuehl/

No 7/2024, Discussion Paper Series in Economics from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics

Abstract: Good decision-making requires understanding the causal impact of our actions. Often, we only have access to correlational data that could stem from multiple causal mechanisms with divergent implications for choice. Our experiments comprehensively characterize choice when subjects face conflicting causal interpretations of such data. Behavior primarily reflects three types: following interpretations that make attractive promises, choosing cautiously, and assessing the fit of interpretations to the data. We characterize properties of interpretations that obscure bad fit to subjects. Preferences for more complex models are more common than those reflecting Occam’s razor. Implications extend to the Causal Narratives and Model Persuasion literatures.

Keywords: Decision-making; Causal mechanisms; Causal Narratives; Model Persuasion; Causal interpretations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C91 D01 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 117 pages
Date: 2024-04-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe and nep-exp
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Choosing between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study (2024)
Working Paper: Choosing between causal interpretations: an experimental study (2024)
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