Joint Forecasting of Salmon Lice and Treatment Interventions in Aquaculture Operations

Benjamin Narum and Geir Drage Berentsen

No 2024/7, Discussion Papers from Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science

Abstract: The need for joint forecasting of parasitic lice and associated preventative treatments stems from large monetary losses associated with such treatments, and the distribution of potential future treatments can be used in operational planning to hedge their associated risk. We present a spatio-temporal forecasting model that accounts for the joint dynamics between lice and treatments where spatial interaction between sites is derived from hydrodynamic transportation patterns. The model-derived forecasting distributions exhibit large heterogeneity between sites at significant levels of exposure which suggests the forecasting model can provide great value in assisting operational risk management.

Keywords: Long-term forecasting; GARMA models; density forecasts; aquaculture; salmon lice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 Q22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2024-05-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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