A Stochastic Analysis of the 4 x 100 m Relay

Niklas Karlsson () and Anders Lunander ()
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Niklas Karlsson: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden, https://www.oru.se/english/employee/niklas_karlsson
Anders Lunander: Örebro University School of Business, Postal: Örebro University, School of Business, SE - 701 82 ÖREBRO, Sweden, https://www.oru.se/english/employee/anders_lunander

No 2023:4, Working Papers from Örebro University, School of Business

Abstract: The baton exchanges are undoubtedly the most critical parts of the 4 × 100 meter relay race. Timing of the outgoing runner is critical. In this paper we analyze the race as a minimization problem under uncertainty. We formulate a stochastic model in which an outgoing runner at the baton exchange cannot perfectly assess the incoming runner’s exact location relatively a check mark position, and therefore potentially misjudges the right moment to start running. Also, the team members’ daily shape is subject to uncertainty. To understand the effect of these two random variables - incoming runners’ distance to checkmark and the daily shape of the running team – we conduct a simulation study to investigate the trade-off between the team’s expected race time and their probability of being disqualified due to overrunning the takeover zone. Conditioning on a low disqualification probability, the difference in expected race time is shown to be substantial between teams with different variation in distance assessment and forecasting running performance, respectively.

Keywords: athletics; sprinting; relay race (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 Z20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2023-03-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2023_004

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