A New Approach to Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Guest Nights in Hotels

Kurt Brännäs (), Jörgen Hellström () and Jonas Nordström
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Jörgen Hellström: Department of Economics, Umeå University, Postal: S 901 87 Umeå, Sweden

No 503, Umeå Economic Studies from Umeå University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Starting from a day-to-day model on hotel specific guest nights we obtain an integer-valued moving average model by cross-sectional and temporal aggregation. The two parameters of the aggregate model reflect the daily mean check-in and the daily check-out probability. Letting the parameters be functions of dummy and economic variables we demonstrate the potential of the approach in terms of interesting interpretations. Empirical results are presented for a series of Norwegian guests in Swedish hotels. The results indicate strong seasonal patterns in both mean check-in and in the check-out probability. Models based on differenced series are preferred in terms of goodness-of-fit. In a forecast comparison the improvements due to economic variables is minute.

Keywords: Integer-valued; time series; estimation; tourism; demand analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C13 C22 C25 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 13 pages
Date: 1999-04-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-ind
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Published in International Journal of Forecasting , 2002, pages 19-30.

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:umnees:0503

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