A bottom-up approach to estimating policy-induced changes in GHG emission and air pollution exposure from ships

Nanna Fukushima (), Eef van Dongen (), Inge Vierth () and Fredrik Windmark
Additional contact information
Nanna Fukushima: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: VTI, Division of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden, https://www.vti.se/en/employees/nanna-fukushima
Eef van Dongen: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
Inge Vierth: Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI), Postal: VTI, Division of Transport Economics, P.O. Box 55685, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden
Fredrik Windmark: Air Navigation Services of Sweden (LFV), Norrköping, Sweden

No 2026:3, Working Papers from Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)

Abstract: Maritime transport generates substantial greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution, yet policy appraisal commonly relies on aggregated handbook cost factors that insufficiently account for spatial heterogeneity in exposure. This paper develops a bottom-up framework integrating AIS-based ship position data with emission modelling, atmospheric dispersion, and population grids to evaluate health and climate impacts of maritime policies. Applying the method to Stockholm and Gothenburg, we simulate onshore power supply, electrification of public ferries, and full IMO Tier III compliance. Tier III delivers the largest NOₓ exposure reductions, while effects vary across regions. The approach enables consistent, spatially explicit welfare comparisons of maritime interventions.

Keywords: Maritime transport; Air pollution; External costs; Health impacts; Environmental policy; Spatial (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 H23 I18 Q53 Q54 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 41 pages
Date: 2026-03-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tre
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2026_003

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