Typhoid Fever in Population With Protected Individuals: A Mathematical Analysis

Jacob I. Irunde and Monica Kung’aro

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, 2026, vol. 2026, 1-18

Abstract: Typhoid fever spreads through consumption of food or water contaminated with human feces due to poor hygiene and sanitation. In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is developed to study the transmission dynamics of typhoid fever in individuals with access to clean water and adequate hygiene and sanitation (protected individuals) and individuals who do not have such access (at-risk individuals). A model with treatment is formulated and then decoupled to obtain a basic model which is analyzed by deriving equilibrium states, computation of the basic reproduction number R0, and qualitative assessment of equilibria via Metzler matrix and Lyapunov functions. Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) method is used to estimate some parameters. The basic model exhibits either backward or forward bifurcation at R0=1 depending on the choice of relative susceptibility parameter ϵ. Backward bifurcation occurs when ϵ∈0.02,0.06, and forward bifurcation occurs when ϵ

Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jijmms:4220378

DOI: 10.1155/ijmm/4220378

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