Application of a Fractional Generalized Discrete Grey Model to Forecast COVID-19 in Japan Diamond Princess Cruises

Hang Zuo and Kai Zuo

Journal of Mathematics, 2025, vol. 2025, 1-13

Abstract: Based on the perspective of local government, this paper develops a new type of fractional-order generalized discrete grey prediction model, abbreviated as FNGDGM (1,1) model to study the COVID-19 in Japan Diamond Princess Cruises. According to grey modelling technique, the definition of fractional operator, the least squares estimation method, the expressions of the system linear parameters and the restored values of the model are obtained. Furthermore, based on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan Diamond Princess Cruises from February 6, 2020, to February 19, 2020, we establish the FNGDGM (1,1) grey prediction model. The computational results are compared with ones obtained by the GM (1,1), DGM (1,1), NDGM (1,1,k2), NGDGM (1,1), PR (n), FGM (1,1), FDGM (1,1), FGRM (1,1) FNGBM (1,1) and FMECM models, which show that the new fractional-order grey model has higher accuracy in studying the confirmed cases of COVID-19. This implies that the new model can provide data support and reference basis for local government to predict and prevent COVID-19.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jjmath:9029570

DOI: 10.1155/jom/9029570

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