Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

Amira Rachah and Delfim F. M. Torres

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2015, vol. 2015, 1-9

Abstract:

The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/DDNS/2015/842792.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/DDNS/2015/842792.xml (text/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnddns:842792

DOI: 10.1155/2015/842792

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().