The Significance of Stochastic CTMC Over Deterministic Model in Understanding the Dynamics of Lymphatic Filariasis With Asymptomatic Carriers

Mussa A. Stephano, Jacob I. Irunde, Maranya M. Mayengo, Dmitry Kuznetsov and Arvind Kumar Misra

Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2024, vol. 2024, 1-11

Abstract: Lymphatic filariasis is a leading cause of chronic and irreversible damage to human immunity. This paper presents deterministic and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) stochastic models regarding lymphatic filariasis dynamics. To account for randomness and uncertainties in dynamics, the CTMC model was formulated based on deterministic model possible events. A deterministic model’s outputs suggest that disease extinction is feasible when the secondary threshold infection number is below one, while persistence becomes likely when the opposite holds true. Furthermore, the significant contribution of asymptomatic carriers was identified. Results indicate that persistence is more likely to occur when the infection results from asymptomatic, acutely infected, or infectious mosquitoes. Consequently, the CTMC stochastic model is essential in capturing variabilities, randomness, associated probabilities, and validity across different scales, whereas oversimplification and unpredictability of inherent may not be featured in a deterministic model.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/jam/2024/2130429.pdf (application/pdf)
http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/jam/2024/2130429.xml (application/xml)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hin:jnljam:2130429

DOI: 10.1155/2024/2130429

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Applied Mathematics from Hindawi
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Mohamed Abdelhakeem ().